Europe is taking the lead in forcing Iran towards a diplomatic de-escalation, and it is doing so using President Donald Trump’s tactics.
Trump called time on Iran’s growing military confrontation by killing its beloved General Qasem Soleimani.
The Europeans are calling time on Tehran’s diplomatic escalation — namely its intentional drift from compliance with the nuclear deal, or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as it is formally known — by triggering the accord’s dispute resolution mechanism, known as paragraph 36.
Paragraph 36 sets a short timeline to escalate (and hopefully resolve) a dispute. First it goes to the deal’s Joint Commission body then, if consensus can’t be reached, on to the signatories’ foreign ministers, before eventually reaching the UN Security Council. Iran is on notice they must come back to compliance.
France, Germany and the UK triggered this Tuesday while Tehran was reeling from the loss of Soleimani and grappling with the international and domestic fallout from downing Ukraine International Airlines flight 752, with the loss of 176 lives. The backlash includes significant street protests calling for the overthrow of the Supreme Leader.
There is a short window before Iran regains its composure and its usually intransigent posture, or at least that seems to be the European calculation: Strike while the iron is hot.