Projections from the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate a staggering 77% increase in new cancer cases worldwide by 2050, surpassing 35 million cases—up from the projected 20 million cases in 2022.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the cancer agency of the WHO, released this alarming forecast in a report ahead of World Cancer Day on Sunday, February 4.
The report highlights a critical issue: most nations are inadequately funding essential cancer and palliative care services as part of universal health coverage (UHC).
According to the study, only 39% of the countries surveyed by WHO provide coverage for basics in cancer management in their health benefits packages. Additionally, just 28% of countries cover palliative medicine services.
Examining cancer disparities by Human Development Index (HDI), the report predicts the highest absolute increase in incidence in high-HDI countries, with an extra 4.8 million new cases estimated in 2050 compared to 2022 estimates. Low- and medium-HDI countries face a proportional increase in incidence of 142% and 99%, respectively.
The report reveals striking inequities in cancer burden based on HDI. Women in very high HDI countries face a 1 in 12 lifetime risk of breast cancer diagnosis, whereas women in low HDI countries have a 1 in 27 risk. Despite the lower diagnosis rate, the risk of dying from breast cancer is higher in low HDI countries due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment.
Dr. Isabelle Soerjomataram, Deputy Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, emphasized the urgent need for global investments to address these inequities.
Dr. Bente Mikkelsen, Director of the Department of Noncommunicable Diseases at WHO, highlighted the lack of financial protection for cancer care worldwide and called for major investments to tackle global disparities in cancer outcomes.
The survey attributes the growing global cancer burden to population aging, growth, and changes in exposure to risk factors associated with socioeconomic development.
Key factors contributing to the increasing incidence of cancer include tobacco, alcohol, and obesity, with air pollution remaining a significant environmental risk factor.
Dr. Freddie Bray, Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, emphasized that the impact of the surge in cancer cases will disproportionately affect countries with fewer resources to manage their cancer burdens.
Dr. Cary Adams, Head of the Union for International Cancer Control (UICC), emphasized the need for political will to ensure everyone has access to affordable, quality cancer services, regardless of their geographical location.